Before we jump ahead to today, there are a few things to consider first. This may be an unprecedented time in our lifetimes, but not in history. At the turn of the previous century, the world was also plagued by a flu virus.
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." - George Santayana
First, a look at the past from the CBC:
"At the time, no one knew what was causing this deadly influenza, or how to treat it. A person could get sick in the morning and be dead by nightfall.
Schools were closed, public transportation was shut down, and public gatherings were cancelled.
People wore masks, spitting in the street was banned and, in Canada, Prince Edward Island quarantined itself from the mainland. Nothing seemed to work.
As the death toll mounted, Winnipeggers faced long bouts of isolation in an effort to rein in the spread.
Churches and schools, along with entertainment venues such as movie theatres, billiard halls, dance halls, and public bathhouses, were shuttered.
Gatherings were banned and limits put on how many people could be on streetcars or in grocery stores.
Hospital visiting hours were abolished and personal care homes were closed to all visitors."
Second, we must remember that it is crucial in times of crisis to “cut off the head of the king” in our analysis of the situation.
So, looking to the past, we can see that the measures currently taken by governments to combat the pandemic are age old. Masks, social distancing, lockdowns, it all happened before.
The crucial lesson here is that these measures are only as effective as the people’s willingness to implement them
Despite these measures, 10% of the world population died from the Spanish flu. This was due to a lack of respect of the guidelines and a mutating virus that became much more dangerous than expected amongst younger population…. Sounds any familiar?
The key difference with these lessons from the past is two fold:
The historical uniqueness of this situation comes from the incidence of all the chaos happening:
Extreme populist political movements are gaining traction and credibility all around the world;
Climate change is getting worse than ever with fires and hurricanes plaguing the globe;
The economy is in tatters from the pandemic and the government’s response;
All of this topped with a glooming sense of hopelessness when we watch the United States’ democracy crumble…
There is a wide-spread lack of trust in academic institutions and the scientific method as a whole. Not since the days of secular states have we been at such odds with institutions of authority in their respective fields:
The rise of anti-vaxxers, flat-earthers, conspiracy theorists as credible oppositions to mainstream science;
Religious groups and right-wing militias all pointing to an emboldened sense of extremism;
All lead to an erosion of intellectual authority in favour of group think...
Considering the unbridled rise of social media and the pernicious effects of these echo chambers and influencer economy, it is only self evident that western culture was headed to this culminating point where the veracity of facts can be affected by its number of likes.
Having laid out the context, let’s now look at the facts.
The pandemic response needs to be an international effort, meaning it has to come from a coalition of countries. Historically, the US has been the global leader behind which countries would rally to tackle these issues. Now, regardless if we agree with the resolutions coming from the Washington Consensus, we should respect the importance of setting a world order intent on globalism.
However, with the rise of Trump, this responsibility that the US tacitly accepted has gone out the window. Perhaps not better illustrated than by Fox anchor Ship Smith when he referred to French President Macron as the “leader of the free world”. A title previously associated with the office of the president of the US.
Turning back to the pandemic response, we can see that the lack of global coordination and leadership coming from the US definitely impacts the worlds ability to cohesively respond to the virus. This is only compounded by the domestic issues that Trump is causing.
Issues like taking politically hostage the Covid relief package in order to get his Supreme Court pick nominated. Issues like defunding major parts of the national budget dedicated to welfare so he could pay for his tax cuts. Issues like contracting Kodak for vaccine research in the magnitudes of 700M USD. These are only issues that made the headlines.
One would think that there is hope with the coming election, but this hope becomes slim when we take the cumulation of events in account. It is easy to see the connection between the aforementioned issues, especially when we listen to Trump. Indeed, he wants his Supreme Court nominee to be confirmed so he can ensure a conservative super majority on the court that would help him in his bid to challenge the results of the election.
Despite the fact that Biden leads Trump in all 6 of the currently identified battleground states, these are controlled by republican legislatures. Which means that when it comes to the actual election of the president, where Senate electors (representatives of the people) will cast their ballots for the actual presidential election. Normally, the state’s winner would be the one the legislature nominates, but Republicans have been adamant in discrediting mail-in ballots, calling the electoral system a fraud if an only if Trump loses. This sets up a Republican play where legislators could challenge the results of the election and decide to cast their vote for Trump anyways in fear that the election was tainted by mail-in ballots. This would then be examined (like Bush v Gore) and would then end up in the Supreme Court after a likely round of deliberations and appeals.
What all of this means is that the current election in the US will not only affect the US, but the whole of the Western hemisphere as it will determine the US’s leadership as a democracy.
Some Canadians might now be thinking that this doesn’t really affect us. Think again. The US is our largest trading parter and biggest driver of tourism. Moreover, our current government has been more than reluctant to challenge the US in their botched foreign policy (think of the Huawei incident). What is the most dangerous however, has been the government’s reluctance to close the border early. This invariably led to not only cases pouring in, but toxic ideology as well. Just look at the reportage on the anti-masks rallies in Montreal, you could hear people chanting for US President Donal Trump, marching with US flags. This pandemic is not only a sanitary crisis, it has also become an ideological crisis, which is why the current situation is so hard to understand, even more so to predict. At least for now, Canadian leadership will hold any decisions regarding reopening the border until after US elections.
Despite a very complex set of factors, we can have certain expectations as to the layout of the pandemic given the points mentioned above. Indeed, top researchers and scientists have made progress on vaccine research. This being said, the health department does not expect to be able to roll out a vaccine to the general population before Q3 of 2021. This means we won’t be building immunity until the third quarter of 2021, which puts us at least to the summer of 2022 until we can have an established immunity within the population.
This a best case scenario however since that is given a mass adoption of the vaccine. As we know though, there is a non-negligible proportion of the population that does not believe in vaccines. This will create a situation where a group in the population will still carry the virus and expose it to immune people. This is bound to create mutations in an already genetically active virus. This will likely cause deadlier mutations that may make the current vaccine useless…
Moreover, we need to consider that by that point, we will have been on and off of confinement and within the new normal of the pandemic for almost two years… Considering they say it takes 28 days to make a habit, I wonder what 700+ days do. It is easy to see how this will be a challenge across all industries. Just think of the last wave of reopening and let’s look at the hospitality industry. Despite a net increase in bookings and almost full occupancy, we need to remember that his new occupancy number has been truncated by the Covid guidelines. Not only that the largest segment of business and most consistant for that industry has fully disappeared. Indeed, there are no more corporate travels and I don’t believe they will ever come back.
So, given a changing political landscape now at a critical turning point, an economy that is disconnected from it’s beneficiaries (stock market’s disconnect from the economy), a geographical changes forced upon us by climate change and a pandemic whose horizon is as defined as dark matter, the real question we should ask is not when will we return to normal, but what this new normal means to us? We must adapt to this new set of circumstances and do better than we did before, not strive to get back to it.
Call your parents, take care of yourself and remember: ca va bien aller 😁
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“Today was good. Today was fun. Tomorrow is another one.”
- Dr. Seuss
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